First Mock Draft!!!

Here it is. Based on current season standings, here is the first 2021 Mock Draft! Will Andy McKenzie go 1st overall? Has Dominic Craft crept up and passed him? How many QBs are going in the 1st Round in what is shaping up to be the best QB draft since 2004 (some say 1983)? How many Gophers are getting drafted in the 1st Round? Get excited.

Mock Draft 

1.     Denver Broncos: Andy McKenzie, QB, Minnesota

2.      St. Louis (LA) Rams: Dominic Craft, QB, FSU

3.      San Diego (LA) Chargers: Jonathan Babcock, QB, Michigan

4.      Miami Dolphins: Tate Payne, QB, Georgia

5.      Kansas City Chiefs: Seth Phillips, Half Back/Running Back, Ohio State

6.      Tennessee Titans: Blake Smith, Defensive Tackle (DT), LSU

7.      Oakland (LA) Raiders: Cory Boyd, FS, Minnesota

8.      New York Giants: Greg Mitchell, Left Tackle, Oklahoma State

9.      Houston Texans [TRADE UP W/JAGS]: Brian Harper, QB, Western Kentucky

10.  Chicago Bears: Nathan Smith, QB, Illinois

11.  Washington (Redskins): Larry Clayton, DE, Michigan

12.  Cleveland Browns: Brad Scott, QB, Iowa

13.  San Francisco 49ers: Johnny Parrish, SS, Washington State

14.  Detroit Lions [TRADE UP W/ FALCONS]: Ramon Allen, DT, Texas

15.  Buffalo Bills: Jason Davis, QB, Penn State

16.  Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Chris Moore, DE, LSU

17.  New York Giants: LeRoy Scott, MLB, Ohio State

18.  New Orleans Saints: Adam Dennis, RB, Texas A & M

19.  Seattle Seahawks: Jeff Mooney, OLB, Ohio State

20.  Atlanta Falcons [TRADE DOWN]: Chris McKnight, RB, Wisconsin

21.  Jacksonville Jaguars [TRADE DOWN]: Paul Harris, RB, Florida State University (FSU)

22.  Arizona Cardinals: Danny Williamson, QB, Cal

23.  Cincinnati Bengals: Vince Cox, CB, Michigan State

24.  Dallas Cowboys: Donnell Jackson, FS, LSU

25.  Pittsburgh Steelers: Jermaine Siegel, DE, Miami

26.  Philadelphia Eagles: Jimmy Flowers, MLB, Penn State

27.  New England Patriots: Vernon McFadden, RB, Utah

28.  Minnesota Vikings: Jonathan Starks, LB/SS, Minnesota

29.  Baltimore Ravens: Matt Howell, OLB, Syracuse

30.  Green Bay Packers: Matt Ryan, MLB, Illinois

31.  Indianapolis Colts: Drew Robinson, SS, Indiana

32.  Carolina Panthers: Julian Robinson, CB, San Diego State

Way Too Early Scouting Profile: TJ Jackson

TJ Jackson--6'0", 218 lbs.
Hometown: Trenton, Tennessee

Evaluation:
Power: 20/25
Speed: 24/25
Vision: 24/25
Receiving: 22/25
Overall: 90/100

Pro player comparison: LeSean McCoy (Darren Sproles--speed/catching would also be a comparison)

Historic player comparison: Marshall Faulk

Projected draft position: 2nd Round if he were eligible (ineligible as a Freshman (RS)). Chip Kelly might well try to find a way to circumvent the rule and draft him in the 7th anyway.

Strengths--World class speed and acceleration, great vision, ability to find and quickly move through the hole, ability to get around the edge, willingness to try to run down the middle

Weaknesses--Poor pass blocking, does not break multiple tackles well, slight ball security issue

Conclusion: A speedy running back who would likely prove adept at the next level. He has NFL-level speed and acceleration that will translate at the next level. He has already broken the NCAA record for longest run (100 yards). He can find an opening through the smallest hole, even down the middle, although he does share the problem of many young RBs in that he occasionally chooses the wrong hole. He gets around the edge well. He is willing to try to take on tacklers. He should spend the extra time in college working on his blocking, running through arm tackles and improving ball security.

Scouting Profile: Jonathan Starks

Jonathan Starks--5'11", 200 lbs.
Hometown: Center Line, Michigan

Evaluation:
Speed: 9/10
Pass Rushing: 10/10
Coverage: 8/10
Run Defense: 9/10
Tackling: 10/10
Overall: 46/50

Pro player comparison: Elvis Dummervill (LB), Bernard Pollard (SS)

Historic player comparison: Zach Thomas (LB), Willie Wood (SS)

Projected draft position: Late 2nd--Early 3rd Round

Strengths--Hard hitter, natural strength, good leader on defense, extensive experience, causes forced fumbles (FF), fumble recoveries (FR) and turnovers at key times

Weaknesses--Size, size, size. This is Starks' key drawback. At 5'11", 200 lbs he is on the small side. He might be able to be moved to Inside Linebacker (ILB) or Strong Safety (SS), but this is going to be a stretch. Theoretically outside linebackers (OLBs) have been getting lighter in 3-4 defenses, so there is a chance he could slide in here if he could put on another 20 pounds.

Conclusion: Starks is going to be a tough draft prospect, almost solely because of size. It is almost too easy to say that he is a true "tweener." A decade or so earlier and Starks might well have not been drafted at all. However, his high college production and the increasing hybridization of the SS/LB position should help Starks. It is not too much of a stretch to see him as a Bernard Pollard or even Deone Buchanon type player. If Starks moves to SS, however, he is going to have to work to improve his coverage even more; his skills are moderately good for a linebacker but even for a Strong Safety he is going to need to show dramatic coverage improvement. If he stays at OLB and puts on weight an Elvis Dummervill would be a comparison. Interestingly enough Starks might well have been able to play pre-1995 as well. Zach Thomas is another prospect who comes to mind. While he was bigger, people tend to forget Thomas' size and height were viewed as a serious detriment that would likely have kept a less productive player from getting drafted at all. Historically people also forget Willie Wood, who essentially played strong safety for the storied early Packer teams (winning 3 NFL championships and Super Bowl I and II). Another undersized prospect who had played a different position in college, Wood's playing style is somewhat similar to Starks. Overall, Starks is too talented and too productive. Some team will likely take Starks in the late 2nd Round and will slide him in either as a LB or a SS, or in a hybrid role as Deone Buchanon was used in his early years with the Arizona Cardinals under Bruce Arians and Todd Bowles, before Bowles left to become the head coach of the NY Jets.

Scouting Profile: Cory Boyd

Cory Boyd (Sr.)--6'2", 217 lbs
Hometown: Hopewell, Virginia

Evaluation

Speed—9/10,

Man Coverage—9/10

Zone Coverage—10/10

Run Defense—10/10

Tackling—10/10

Overall—48/50 

Pro player comparison: Harrison Smith

Historic player comparison: Rod Woodson

Projected draft position: 1^st Round, Mid—Late 1^st Round (possible Top 10 pick pending Senior Bowl/ Combine /interviews)

Strengths—Four year starter, extensive experience, good size, hard hitter, good in run support, rarely beaten over the top, instinctive feel for the position, able to make INTs when necessary, strong leader of the back end of the defense, versatility—his run support and hard-hitting mean he could play FS or SS in a pinch

Weaknesses—Not a natural ball-hawk, will catch obvious INTs but does not necessarily go up and get them, played on a strong defense surrounded by other strong defensive players

Conclusion: Boyd is a good-sized safety with extensive experience. He shows a strong desire to hit and move up in run support for a Free Safety. He is extremely rangy and athletic. Although he may not be a superstar, this is the type of safety that could start on Day 1 and become a perennial Pro Bowler with some experience.

Classic Player Scouting Profile 1: Kevin Martindale

Kevin Martindale (Sr.)--5’9”, 215 lbs.

Hometown: Lanett, Alabama

Power—20/25

Speed—25/25

Vision—24/25

Receiving—23/25

Overall—92/100

Projected Draft Position: 4^th-7^th Round,

Actual Draft Position: Priority UDFA

Strengths—Great functional speed (again this is what we actually see on the field, not just what the numbers appear to be), outstanding vision (probably the most underrated skill/attribute for any running back on both the college and pro level), slightly slippery running style, decent to good elusiveness

Weaknesses—Major mileage/heavy carries in college which leads to concerns of overuse, one major injury in college, not ideal size (although this has never been as huge of a disqualifying/limiting factor for running backs with speed)

Pro player comparison: CJ Spiller (Giovanni Bernard would work as well) 

Historic comparison: Emmitt Smith

Conclusion: Honestly, this is an extremely productive player with high-end speed but he has some limitations and major red flags for the NFL.  First of all, he has a significant amount of mileage on him due to his high usage in college. This is always a concern for the pros, and Martindale has been used for at least 2 seasons as a work horse. More importantly, Martindale did suffer a major, season-ending injury so these concerns are even more acute. He was spelled by his fellow backfield mate, Alonzo Holland, during his final season which helps slightly. The other concern is the fact that there does not appear to be a great deal of room for improvement with this player. He seems to have reached his athletic and skill peak. There is nothing necessarily wrong with this and players who appear to have already reached their ceiling can transcend it (Emmitt Smith is a good example of this—a player who looked like a very good college running back who would be about the same on the next level, but who went on to become an all-time great, productive NFL running back), but it is rare.  Martindale does have top end speed and he is reportedly a great teammate. His ceiling comparison for a current pro player would likely be CJ Spiller, while his floor would be Fozzy Whittaker. Work ethic, coachability, intelligence, vision and speed count heavily on the next level, so if Martindale gets with the right team he might well be able to become a starting running back. On the other hand, if he is drafted by the wrong team, he might get buried on the depth chart and struggle to stay on the team. The current running back by committee approach helps him, though, and he should solidly make a roster and see substantial playing time.

Feel free to disagree

Also just a quick note, anyone is always free to disagree. It's always nice to hear other perspectives. People, over on Youtube in the comment section to the last game, have pointed out reasons/disagreements with some of the rankings. I'm open. You can argue any of these. Certainly there can be some good reasons for downgrading say either McKenzie's accuracy, reads, footwork, etc. Or Joey Williams' strength or impact blocking.

If anyone's interested I'll give my rationales for why the ratings are what they are, if you add a comment posing questions to any of the posts. If not, cool.

Scouting Profile: Joey Williams

Joey Williams (Sr.)--6'3", 303 lbs.

Hometown: Ellendale, North Dakota

Measurements*:

Strength—8/10 (86)

Pass block—9/10 (92)

Run Block—8/10 (92)

Impact Blocking—8/10 (79)

Explosion—7/10 (N/A)

Overall—40/50 (92) 

 

Pro Player comparison—Zack Martin (6’4”, 310 lbs)

Historic player comparison: Mike Munchak (6'3", 281 lbs)

Projected draft position: 5^th—7^th Round, Priority Free Agent

Strengths—Balanced (good in pass and run blocking), solid technique, significant experience as 4 year starter, blocked for a mobile QB, helped anchor the stronger left side of the line in college, decent size (6’3”, 303 lbs), could slide in at left or right guard

Weaknesses—Does not really stand out in anything, not the world’s quickest feet, strong but not overly powerful, slightly shorter arms, may well have reached his ceiling, not necessarily an athletic freak or world class athlete

Conclusion: This is an experienced college senior with a number of upsides who will likely outperform his actual draft position on the next level. Despite not having the strongest measurable strength, Williams has very high functional strength which shows up on the field. He has little problem manhandling and often physically overpowering opposing defenders. His performance has been largely consistent over 4 years of college. Despite playing on a questionable offensive line for his first two seasons, Williams was consistently a rock. Sacks seem to come more from the opposite side of the offensive line. He might well have reached his ceiling already, but what you are getting is a very good guard. In terms of the higher end his best comparison would be Zack Martin of the Dallas Cowboys. Williams, on a good line, has the potential to be what Martin was and make a Pro Bowl in his rookie season as a very good guard. On the lower end of the spectrum, he might well resemble a Hugh Thornton of the Indianapolis Colts.

* I went ahead and included the game ratings in parenthesis ( ) in this one to give you an idea of how they impact a player and where he might outperform/under-perform them. Williams' Impact Blocking is listed as 79, but his grade is a B (and it would have been a solid B, around an 85, if the scouting profile were grading on such a system) because he clearly outperforms this number in games. His functional strength and ability to push defenders back, usually doing so with force, to either buy time for the quarterback in the pocket or opening running lanes ups this rating to the deserved B in this scouting profile.